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This tool provides a personalized risk assessment for seizure recurrence and the Chance of an Occurrence of a Seizure in the Next Year (COSY). The tool is based on a register-based cohort study that analyzed the risk of seizure recurrence after one or more unprovoked seizures.

Background and Study Basis

The calculator is derived from a long-term cohort study  with 204 patients investigating the probability of seizure recurrence in patients with a history of unprovoked seizures. The study followed a group of patients, including individuals with remote symptomatic epilepsy and idiopathic epilepsy, to quantify seizure risk over time.

Variables Used

1. History of Seizures

   • The risk of recurrence increases with each additional seizure.
   • This calculator adjusts based on whether the patient has had one, two, or more unprovoked seizures.

2. Seizure Type

   • Remote Symptomatic Epilepsy: Linked to prior neurological conditions such as traumatic brain injury, stroke, or infections.
   • Idiopathic Epilepsy: Seizures occur without a known structural or metabolic cause, often associated with genetic predisposition.

3. Time Since Last Seizure

   • The tool dynamically updates calculations based on selected time points, reflecting changes in long-term recurrence probability.

Outputs

1. Cumulative Seizure Recurrence Risk

   • The risk of experiencing another seizure is plotted over time, allowing users to visualize how seizure history and epilepsy type influence recurrence probability.
2. Chance of an Occurrence of a Seizure in the next Year (COSY):

• • This tool informs whether an individual may be fit to drive, based on their specific seizure recurrence risk.