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We are enthusiastic about using evidence-based prognostic models in epilepsy. Let us know what you think. If a calculator is missing or should be removed, please contact us, and we will address your request promptly.

โœ‰ [email protected]

Methodology

How the calculators were created

Most of the calculators featured here were developed by other researchers, not by us. This website provides an overview of widely used calculators and prognostic models in epilepsy, intended for demonstration purposes and to support researchers. They are not designed to guide clinical decision-making. Below, we explain how we implemented these calculators on our website.

1

๐Ÿ“šData Sources

We analyzed scores and models from scientific studies predicting seizure or epilepsy risk. These studies provide cumulative probabilities of being seizure-free or experiencing seizures over time, often displayed in tables or graphs.

2

๐Ÿ“ˆData Extraction

When graphical data (e.g., risk curves) were available, we used WebPlotDigitizer, a free online tool, to extract precise values for monthly intervals. This ensured consistent and accurate time-based risk calculations.

3

๐Ÿ–ฅ๏ธGraphical Depictions

Using the Calculated Fields Form plugin with the Chart.js extension in WordPress, we transformed this data into interactive calculator outputs that display seizure risks numerically and graphically. This makes it easier to visualize seizure-free probabilities and other risk metrics over time.

4

๐ŸงฎCOSY Calculation

We included the โ€œChance of a Seizure in the Next Yearโ€ (COSY) metric, which estimates the likelihood of experiencing a seizure over the coming 12 months.

COSY = 100 ร— (1 โˆ’ Pt+12 / Pt)
Pt = cumulative probability of being seizure-free up to month t  ยท  Pt+12 = seizure-free probability up to month t + 12

Example: if P12 = 0.90 (90% seizure-free at 12 months) and P24 = 0.80 (80% at 24 months), then COSY = 100 ร— (1 โˆ’ 0.80/0.90) โ‰ˆ 11.1% โ€” an 11.1% chance of a seizure in the next year for someone seizure-free at 12 months.

5

๐Ÿš—Driving Eligibility

Authorities often use COSY to determine driving eligibility. The most frequently used cut-offs are:

  • ๐Ÿš™Private driving: a COSY below 20% is generally acceptable.
  • ๐ŸššProfessional driving: a stricter threshold of less than 2% is recommended (Schmedding et al., EU, 2005).

By integrating these calculations, our tools aim to provide helpful insights, but are not meant to replace local or international guidelines.

Key publications

The science behind these calculators

These peer-reviewed papers describe the prognostic models and the conditional-risk framework used across the calculators on this site.

2025
Prognostic models for seizures and epilepsy after stroke, tumors and traumatic brain injurySchubert KM, Schmick A, Stattmann M, Galovic M · Clin Neurophysiol Pract · Review · Open access

DOI →

2025
Epilepsy as a dynamic disease: Toward actionable, individualized seizure risk predictionSchubert KM, Marson AG, Trinka E, Galovic M · Epilepsia · Review · Open access

DOI →

Disclaimer

Most of the models featured on this website were not developed by us. For detailed information about each model or calculator, please refer to the links to the original publications. This website provides an overview of selected prognostic models for epilepsy for demonstration purposes only. We do not guarantee the accuracy, reliability, or scientific integrity of these calculators. The implementations may contain errors and could produce unreliable results. The clinical usefulness and robustness of most of these models have not been adequately tested, and they should not be used to guide medical decisions. All liability is excluded.

ยฉ 2025, SeLECT consortium ยท [email protected]

Research group: Galovic Lab — Epilepsy and Brain Research Zurich, University Hospital Zurich.