Background

This tool estimates the risk of seizure recurrence and Chance of an Occurrence of a Seizure in the next Year (COSY) following a first unprovoked seizure in individuals diagnosed with dementia. The predictions focus on understanding the varying risks associated with different dementia subtypes, as explored in the study “Risk of epilepsy diagnosis after a first unprovoked seizure in dementia” (Mahamud et al., 2020). 

Variables Used:

Dementia Types:

  • Early-Onset Alzheimer’s Disease: Higher epilepsy risk compared to other subtypes.
  • Late-Onset Alzheimer’s Disease: Moderate risk with age-related influences.
  • Mixed Type Dementia: Combines Alzheimer’s and vascular dementia features.
  • Vascular Dementia: Increased epilepsy risk linked to cerebrovascular abnormalities.
  • Lewy Body Dementia: Lower epilepsy risk.
  • Frontotemporal Dementia: Notable epilepsy risk despite lower prevalence.
  • Parkinson’s Disease with Dementia: Minimal risk due to subcortical degeneration.
  • Unclassified Dementia and Other Types: Capture atypical or ambiguous dementia diagnoses.

Time Interval in Months :

Specifies the time since the first unprovoked seizure, allowing longitudinal analysis of seizure recurrence risks.

Outputs:

  • Risk of Seizure Recurrence: Provides individualized seizure recurrence risk estimates for different dementia subtypes and time points.
    • Example: Patients with early-onset Alzheimer’s show an elevated 5-year epilepsy risk compared to those with late-onset Alzheimer’s or vascular dementia.
  • COSY (Chance of an Occurrence of a Seizure in the next Year): Highlights dynamic chances in seizure probability over time.
    • Example: Risk tends to decrease for patients with low initial recurrence likelihood but remains high for early-onset Alzheimer’s cases.

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