Background

This calculator estimates the risk of seizure recurrence and the predicted Chance of an Occurrence of a Seizure in the next Year (COSY) over time for adults experiencing a first tonic-clonic seizure. The tool leverages clinical and imaging data to provide personalized predictions based on epilepsy type and other factors.

Variables Used:

  1. Genetic vs. Non-Genetic Aetiology: Indicates whether the seizure has a genetic (e.g., hereditary conditions) or non-genetic origin (e.g., acquired conditions).
  2. Absences/Myoclonic Seizures vs. GTC Only: Presence of other seizure types like absences or myoclonic seizures versus generalized tonic-clonic (GTC) seizures alone.
  3. Temporal Lobe Epilepsy (TLE) vs. Frontal Lobe Epilepsy (FLE) vs. Undetermined Focus: The brain region where the seizure originates, assessed through imaging and EEG findings.
  4. Slider for Time Points in Months: Allows selection of a specific time interval for risk predictions.

Outputs:

  • Risk of Seizure Recurrence in % after X Months: Displays the cumulative likelihood of experiencing another seizure based on the variables selected, using longitudinal clinical data.
  • Chance of an Occurrence of a Seizure in the next Year (COSY) in % after X Months: Predicts the chance in seizure occurrence over the next year, accounting for the type of epilepsy and other clinical factors.

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